Bitcoin has recently plunged to new lows under $64,000, as market selling reached unprecedented levels, sparking concerns among analysts about the potential for further declines. Over the past four days, Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by 13%, dropping from $79,300 to $63,844. Currently, it trades below the $69,000 mark, the peak of the 2021 bull market, which many investors view as a critical support level.
This decline coincides with a notable fall in futures activity, as BTC's open interest has decreased by over $10 billion in the past week. Analysts are now closely observing long-term technical zones and on-chain indicators that might indicate a significant turning point for Bitcoin.
The $69,000 level is particularly important as it marked the 2021 bull market high. Historical patterns suggest that previous cycle tops often act as support during bear markets. For instance, Bitcoin found a bottom near the 2017 high of $19,600 before briefly dipping to around $16,000 in November 2022. This current drop below $69,000 may adhere to this historical pattern, although past cycles also show that prices can fall below previous highs before eventually stabilizing.
André Dragosch, Bitwise's European Head of Research, noted that a significant portion of recent transactions took place between $58,000 and $69,000. This range also aligns with the 200-week moving average near $58,000, reinforcing it as a significant demand zone. Meanwhile, crypto analyst 'exitpump' highlighted visible buyer interest with large BTC bids on order books between $68,000 and $65,000.
Market analyst Subu Trade pointed out that Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30, a level reached only four times before, typically followed by an average 16% price rally over the next four days. Another analyst, MorenoDV, observed that the adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has turned negative for the first time since 2023, indicating that the average holder is now experiencing a loss. Past occurrences of similar conditions in 2018–2019, 2020, and 2022–2023 have led to price recoveries for Bitcoin.
While a relief rally may not materialize immediately, MorenoDV remarked on the rapid deterioration of sentiment, which is occurring faster than in previous cycles. This swift change suggests a sharp sentiment reset rather than a gradual decline, potentially shortening the capitulation phase.