Bitcoin is currently navigating a phase of capitulation as traders and analysts speculate on when the cryptocurrency might hit its lowest point. As the price hovers within this zone, market participants are witnessing a significant sell-off by long-term holders, prompting discussions about a potential bottom around $40,000.
On Thursday, Bitcoin sellers became active again when the price retreated from an intraday high of $68,300. Experts suggest that Bitcoin is still experiencing capitulation, which could lead to further price declines, potentially bottoming out in the final quarter of 2026.
Key Insights:
- Multiple onchain indicators highlight that Bitcoin is deeply entrenched in capitulation, with a persistent risk of further downside.
- Data shows that long-term holders are offloading their Bitcoin, similar to past corrections that prefaced additional downturns.
- Analysts anticipate that Bitcoin's price might find a bottom in Q4 2026, based on technical and onchain data.
Currently, Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its peak of $126,000, leaving many investors at a loss. Glassnode data reveals that long-term holders have reduced their holdings by 245,000 BTC as of February 6, marking a significant daily distribution. Since then, this group has consistently decreased their holdings by an average of 170,000 BTC.
According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window) for Bitcoin has dropped to -2.66, indicating strong sell-side pressure. This Z-Score level suggests that Bitcoin remains firmly in the capitulation zone, hinting at an impending accumulation phase.
Glassnode's Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is approaching a value below 1, an indicator historically linked to widespread capitulation, where market losses exceed profits.
Analysts' Forecasts:
Several analysts predict that Bitcoin's downward trend could continue, potentially falling to $40,000 to $50,000 by the last quarter of the year. Crypto analyst Tony Research suggests a bottom forming between September and November 2026, estimating a low between $40K and $50K.
Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, notes that previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 found their lows approximately a year after hitting bull market peaks. Given Bitcoin's all-time high of over $126,000 on October 2, 2025, a similar pattern could place the bottom around October 2026.
On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin's Net Realized Loss levels reached extreme figures of $13.6 billion on February 7, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market. The 2022 peak in losses occurred five months before the bear market bottomed, suggesting a potential bottom in July 2026.
As reported, many analysts foresee 2026 as a challenging year for the Bitcoin market, with predictions of the price dropping to lows around $40,000.
This information is intended to provide analysis based on current trends and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.