Kevin O’Leary, the well-known American entrepreneur and investor, has dismissed the idea that the US Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in December—a move that often bodes well for cryptocurrencies. Despite this, O’Leary is confident that a Fed rate decision, whether a hold or otherwise, will not adversely affect Bitcoin (BTC). "I don’t actually think the Fed's gonna cut in December," O’Leary, popularly known as “Mr. Wonderful,” shared in an interview with Cointelegraph, adding that it wouldn’t significantly impact Bitcoin.
O’Leary does not foresee Bitcoin experiencing more than a 5% fluctuation. "I’m not investing with the expectation that the Fed will cut rates. I just don’t see it happening. There are numerous reasons why they might refrain," he explained. He pointed out that inflation remains a concern, with the annual rate having climbed to 3% in September—the highest since January. "It's a dual mandate: full employment and inflation. Tariffs are starting to take hold, along with input costs," O’Leary noted. Despite these issues, the CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates that market participants assign an 89.2% probability to a rate cut in December.
Crypto enthusiasts typically view Fed rate cuts as positive for riskier assets like cryptocurrency, as these cuts make bonds and term deposits less appealing. However, some fear that an unexpected Fed decision could negatively impact Bitcoin and the wider crypto markets. O’Leary, however, is not concerned about this outcome. He believes Bitcoin has stabilized for the time being and does not anticipate significant downward movement. "I think it’s going to stay within 5% of its current value, either way, but I don’t see many catalysts for significant upside," O’Leary commented. Over the past month, Bitcoin's value has decreased by 17.35%, according to CoinMarketCap, with its current trading price at $91,440.
As the Federal Reserve's December decision approaches, volatility surrounding rate expectations remains high. Just weeks ago, the probability of a December rate cut was much lower. On November 19, the likelihood of a rate cut at the December meeting had dropped to 33%, following an earlier assessment of 67% in early November. However, by November 21, the odds almost doubled to 69.40%, spurred by New York Fed President John Williams' dovish remarks suggesting the Fed could cut rates "in the near term" without compromising its inflation objectives. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal attributed this significant increase to Williams' comments.
After the first rate cut of 2025 in September and another in November, there was a widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve would continue its policy of easing through the year's end.