Ethereum's current trading momentum near $3,300 might set the stage for a potential surge to $4,100, but this outcome hinges on specific market conditions. While ETH futures trends indicate a possible 10% to 25% price increase, analysts caution that a short-term correction might precede this rally.
A critical aspect of this analysis is the Ether Leverage Ratio, which currently hovers around 0.60. Historically, such levels have often been followed by notable rallies after minor pullbacks due to overleveraged positions being liquidated. Crypto analyst Pelin Ay has pointed out a pattern where rapid increases in the Leverage Ratio on platforms like Binance lead to temporary drops, which subsequently trigger strong upward movements. This phenomenon was observed multiple times in 2025, with significant occurrences in February, April, September, and November.
Despite recent price gains, the leverage is not declining, indicating a sustained appetite for risk. This persistence suggests that a brief market dip could set the stage for a substantial upswing, potentially boosting Ether beyond $4,100.
Furthermore, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose notes a divergence in ETH holder behavior. Although Ether has recently outperformed Bitcoin, the spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) remains below 1. This suggests that, on the whole, ETH holders are experiencing more losses than gains, reflecting weaker market conviction compared to Bitcoin investors.
On the technical front, Ether recently hit its highest daily close since November 2025 at $3,324. A 25% rally from this point would break the $4,100 mark, but the likelihood of a slight dip is significant. Ether's daily chart shows an order block between $3,050 and $3,170, corresponding to the point of control on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This area, marked by high trading volumes since September 2025, might act as a magnet for prices seeking fair value.
Supporting this analysis, Hyblock Capital data highlights a net long position concentration of over $500 million between $3,040 and $3,100. Such dense positioning increases the chance of a short-term price sweep into this range, potentially paving the way for a robust continuation of the upward trend.
In conclusion, while Ethereum's journey to $4,100 seems plausible, it will likely be punctuated by short-term volatility as the market adjusts to leverage dynamics and investor sentiment. As always, traders should conduct thorough research and consider potential risks before making investment decisions.