Ethereum has recently climbed back to the $3,200 mark, but questions linger about whether this level can be transitioned from a resistance point to a supportive base. Although Ethereum remains a dominant force in total value locked (TVL), diminishing usage and ongoing economic uncertainty in the United States could obstruct its path to reaching $4,000.
Currently, Ethereum is trading near $3,200. The reduced network activity, coupled with economic challenges in the US, is capping its potential to rise further. Most Ethereum interactions are now taking place on layer-2 networks, but the rise of cheaper alternative blockchains diminishes the likelihood of Ethereum reaching $4,000 in the near future.
Over the past two months, Ether has struggled to maintain a price above $3,300. This has led analysts to question if a substantial rally is feasible in 2026. Despite Ethereum's ongoing network improvements and its leading position in deposits, investors remain skeptical about the possibility of achieving the $4,000 milestone.
The performance of Ether since November has mirrored overall trends in the cryptocurrency market. The current lack of enthusiasm seems to be more about the general decline in decentralized application (DApp) usage rather than specific issues within the Ethereum network. Whether driven by broader economic uncertainties or other factors, the short-term outlook for ETH's price remains constrained.
As interest in DApps wanes, traders are showing decreased engagement, evidenced by the drop in activity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Data from DefiLlama indicates that DEX volumes over the last two weeks amounted to $150.4 billion, a 55% decline from a record high of $340 billion in January 2025.
Ethereum's seven-day DEX volumes have stabilized around $9 billion after peaking at $27.8 billion in October 2025. This significant drop has driven Ethereum network fees down by 87%, from $21.3 million to $2.6 million. Nevertheless, Ethereum maintains a dominant position, accounting for roughly half of DEX activity when considering data from Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and other layer-2 solutions.
Despite higher network fees from competitors like Tron, Solana, and BNB Chain, Ethereum's leadership in TVL illustrates a preference among institutional investors. Some argue that Ethereum hasn't fully capitalized on its smart contract deposits' dominance, but this aligns with its scalability strategy focused on rollups.
Solana's transaction count surpasses the combined total of its top 10 competitors, underscoring its dependence on extensive validation processes and a semi-centralized development approach led by Solana Labs. According to Nansen, Ethereum processed 54.4 million transactions in a 30-day span, while its layer-2 network Base recorded over 600 million transactions in the same period.
Ethereum's two-month struggle to break past $3,200 poses challenges for companies like Bitmine Immersion (BMNR US), which holds $13.2 billion of Ether, yet its shares trade at a 9% discount based on CoinGecko data.
The factors that could potentially revive ETH's momentum remain uncertain, especially as rival networks continue to offer competitive DApps and functionalities that appeal to average users with less friction. Ethereum's journey back to $4,000 and beyond is largely contingent on renewed interest in blockchain applications and a more favorable risk appetite in the broader cryptocurrency market amid persistent US economic uncertainty.