Gemini, the US-based cryptocurrency exchange established in 2015, has announced its decision to withdraw from the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australian markets, while reducing its workforce by 25%. This strategic shift is intended to enhance its focus on expanding within the United States, where it sees greater opportunities due to robust capital markets.
The company attributed its retreat to several factors, including advancements in artificial intelligence that have significantly increased engineering efficiency and the challenging business environments faced in the UK, EU, and Australia. "These regions have presented difficulties for various reasons, leading to an unsustainable level of organizational complexity that inflates costs and hampers progress," the announcement stated. "We lack the demand in these areas to justify our presence, especially when the US offers the world's most substantial capital markets."
Instead, Gemini plans to concentrate resources on its US operations, particularly on its prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions, launched in December 2025. This decision emerges amidst a tough period for the cryptocurrency sector, marked by declining digital asset prices since a market downturn began in October and delays in the anticipated US crypto market regulation known as the CLARITY Act.
The announcement also emphasized Gemini's growing interest in prediction markets, claiming they will play an increasingly prominent role in its business model. The firm believes prediction markets could rival today's capital markets in scale. Since its launch, Gemini Predictions has attracted over 10,000 users and facilitated $24 million in trading volume.
The prediction market sector gained momentum during the third quarter of 2024, coinciding with the US presidential election, which saw a remarkable 565.4% increase in trading volume quarter-over-quarter, reaching approximately $3.1 billion. Data from Dune Analytics indicates that from September 2024 to February 2026, daily trading volumes ranged from $277 million to $550 million.
Currently, the prediction market is dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with Polymarket holding more than 37% of the 24-hour trading volume and Kalshi securing over 26%, according to Dune's data.