The sentiment among market predictors has turned optimistic again for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a notable lean towards Bitcoin reaching $100,000 rather than experiencing a significant decline. Similarly, Ethereum is expected to climb to $4,000 before potentially dropping to $2,500. Additionally, predictors consider a massive liquidation event of $2 billion or more unlikely before the year concludes.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have both posted slight gains over the past week, regaining pivotal levels at $90,000 and $3,000, respectively. These movements have been sufficient to encourage a bullish outlook for their future trajectories, despite the improbability of new all-time highs within the current year. However, die-hard optimists might still hold a different view. We will explore the prospects for BTC and ETH's next potential moves and the chances of a major liquidation event occurring.
Bitcoin's recent performance has reignited optimism among Myriad market predictors. The cryptocurrency has experienced a 1.1% increase over the past week and a 6.9% rise in the past two weeks, reclaiming the $92,000 mark, with current trading at $92,522. This recovery, exceeding 10% from late November lows, has shifted the odds to a 75% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before it potentially falls to $69,000. This represents a 27% increase in confidence since the beginning of the week when the sentiment favored a drop to $69,000. Despite the recent uptick, Bitcoin remains 8% lower over the month, distancing itself from previous all-time highs and optimistic year-end predictions of $150,000. Analysts suggest that a December rate cut is highly likely, offering a short-term catalyst that could propel BTC back to the $100,000 level. Savvy investors could achieve around a 25% gain on their predictions if they anticipate this outcome, compared to holding Bitcoin spot, which could yield approximately 8%.
Ethereum, meanwhile, has outpaced Bitcoin over the past week, rising by 3.6% compared to Bitcoin's 1% increase. This performance has led to a shift in Myriad’s market sentiment, leaning slightly bullish towards Ethereum's potential rise rather than a decline to $2,500. Despite technical analyses painting a bearish picture, Ethereum is currently trading at $3,140, about 27% shy of the $4,000 mark. The odds of Ethereum reaching $4,000 have nearly doubled from 26.7% to 50.8% since Monday. Recent developments could provide momentum for Ethereum, following its Fusaka upgrade, which enhances network speed and scalability. Furthermore, significant Ethereum holders, or whales, have been active, with one particular wallet adding approximately $55 million worth of Ethereum. Additionally, BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest publicly traded holder of Ethereum, continues to increase its holdings, acquiring over $265 million last week as part of its strategy to secure 5% of the circulating supply. The potential rate cuts next week could further boost Ethereum and other risk assets.
As for the possibility of a $2 billion crypto liquidation day before the end of December, a new market on Myriad suggests it is unlikely, with a 69% probability of "no" based on limited trading volumes. This means a "no" trader could gain around 31% if such a significant liquidation does not occur. Historically, only 14 days have witnessed liquidations surpassing the $2 billion threshold, with 12 of those days occurring in 2021. Liquidations can affect both sides of the market, impacting bets on both rising and falling asset prices. For instance, as of today, 53% of the $346 million in liquidations are attributed to long positions, or those betting on price increases. Two of the largest liquidation events occurred this year, including the record-breaking one on October 10. The question remains whether another major event will transpire before the year concludes. Such events typically follow significant price volatility in either direction.