Prediction markets saw a significant rise in the odds of Kevin Hassett becoming the next chair of the US Federal Reserve following a hint from President Donald Trump at a White House event. During a speech on Tuesday, Trump introduced Hassett as a "potential Fed chair," sparking speculation about Hassett's candidacy. Trump remarked, "It’s a great group, and I guess a potential Fed chair is here too," before adding, "I don’t know, are we allowed to say that, potential? He’s a respected person, that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin."
Earlier the same day, Trump mentioned in a cabinet meeting that the selection process had narrowed down significantly. "I think we probably looked at 10 and we have it down to one," he shared. This statement led to a surge in Hassett’s odds on the blockchain-based prediction market Kalshi, jumping from about 66% to approximately 85% after Trump's comments. Similarly, odds on Polymarket mirrored this trend.
Kevin Hassett, who has been serving as the director of the National Economic Council since January 2025 after being appointed by Trump, is viewed as a crypto-friendly figure. With a $1 million investment in Coinbase and experience with the digital asset working group, Hassett is among several candidates considered for the Fed chair position as Jerome Powell’s term is set to conclude in May 2026. Trump's relationship with Powell has been strained, highlighted by a comment at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in late November, where Trump expressed frustration, saying, "I’d love to fire his ass ... grossly incompetent.”
In related developments, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been tasked with leading the search for the new Fed chair. Last month, Bessent emphasized that the government seeks a leader who can guide the Fed quietly and effectively behind the scenes, returning to a more traditional and subdued role. "I think it’s time for the Fed just to move back into the background, like it used to do, calm things down and work for the American people," Bessent stated.
While the Fed does not directly regulate cryptocurrency, its policies significantly affect market sentiment through monetary policy and interest rate decisions. Lower interest rates tend to benefit the crypto market, and Hassett has criticized the Fed's rate policy for being too high. Additionally, the Fed's role in overseeing banking regulations could impact crypto firms' interactions with the banking sector if rules are adjusted.