XRP appears poised to replicate a significant breakout pattern previously seen in gold, which could potentially lead to a price target between $8 and $10 by 2026, suggests crypto analyst Steph is Crypto. This prediction hinges on the currency's current trajectory, which mirrors gold's past performance.
Key Insights:
- XRP is following a breakout pattern similar to gold's historical surge, suggesting a price increase to $8–$10 if the trend continues.
- Failure to surpass the 100-week EMA may result in XRP reverting to a range of $1.61–$1.97.
Gold's Historic Breakout as a Blueprint
The optimistic forecast is inspired by gold's recovery from 2020 to 2022. During that period, gold consolidated between $1,620 and $2,055, forming a five-wave Elliott Wave structure, including a descending channel as part of the wave 3-4 pattern.
In November 2022, gold decisively broke above this long-term resistance, initiating a growth phase that saw its price soar by approximately 180%, reaching a peak of $4,550 by December 2025.
XRP's Price Action
XRP's price movements in early 2026 have displayed similarities to gold's consolidation phase from 2020 to 2022. After being confined within a descending channel, XRP rose nearly 30% in early 2026, breaking out and indicating potential upward momentum.
Steph's analysis sets ambitious price targets for XRP in 2026, projecting a rise of 230%-310% from current levels. The analyst notes, "The path XRP is taking is remarkably similar to gold's, though on a delayed timeline." He further explains, "Typically, hard assets move first, followed by higher-beta assets. Gold has already moved; XRP is just beginning to respond."
Potential Challenges to XRP's Growth
Despite the bullish outlook, there are risks that could invalidate this setup. XRP's recent recovery bears a resemblance to its downturn from 2021 to 2022, where rising prices coupled with a declining RSI indicated a bearish divergence, leading to an 85% correction.
During that downtrend, XRP experienced significant countertrend rallies, often after interacting with the 100-week EMA, with some rebounds exceeding 100%. However, these rallies did not reverse the overarching downward trend, as prices remained bound by a descending trendline.
As of 2026, XRP continues to trade below both the descending trendline and the 100-week EMA, suggesting the bear market might not yet be over. Successfully reclaiming these levels could propel XRP toward $3.00, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Conversely, failing to do so could mean a retreat to the $1.61–$1.97 range.
While this analysis provides insights into potential market movements, it's essential to conduct thorough research and consider inherent risks before making investment decisions.