Gold News
Institutional Interest in Bitcoin Futures Hits 2024 Lows: A Market Shift?
The demand for Bitcoin futures has dwindled to levels not seen since 2024, raising concerns about a potential retreat by institutional investors. Despite this drop, significant activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) signals that major players haven't completely exited the market. Bitcoin's price recently climbed 10% after hitting $63,000, buoying bullish sentiment even as global stock markets faced uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. However, the overall interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased, with open interest on major exchanges falling to $32 billion, a 20% reduction over the past month. This decline is partly attributed to unexpected forced liquidations among bullish traders. Interestingly, the annualized premium on Bitcoin futures contracts has dipped to 2%, the lowest in a year, deviating from the typical 5% to 10% range that balances the extended settlement periods. Despite a 50% rally earlier in 2025, Bitcoin's relative underperformance compared to gold and equities seems to have diverted investor focus from the cryptocurrency market. Although some may speculate about institutional withdrawal, the robust trading volume of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), averaging over $3 billion daily, indicates ongoing institutional involvement. Key players, including major mutual and pension fund managers, continue to hold substantial Bitcoin assets. Additionally, public corporations collectively hold over $79 billion in Bitcoin, and countries like Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE have increased their Bitcoin exposure. In the options market, the put-to-call ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced demand between put and call options. This equilibrium indicates no significant distress despite Bitcoin trading 45% below its all-time high. Institutional activity is further evidenced by the $7.5 billion in open interest on CME's Bitcoin futures, reflecting sustained engagement. As market conditions evolve, the potential for recovery remains, driven by the persistent interest from both institutional and retail investors. While it's uncertain if $60,000 marks the market cycle's low, Bitcoin's status as a secure asset with a capped supply underscores its resilience in the face of fluctuating market dynamics.
Analyst Suggests Bitcoin's Undervaluation Compared to Gold Could Spark a Surge
Bitcoin might be poised for a significant rally as it appears undervalued when compared to gold and the global money supply, suggests Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3. He argues that Bitcoin is trading between 24% and 66% below its expected trend relative to gold's market cap, while gold itself is considered "overextended." On a recent Saturday, Mow shared these insights on X, noting that gold futures for April finished at $5,247.90, with tokenized gold PAX Gold USD trading at $5,404.14 at the time. Mow also referenced Bitcoin’s Z-score, a statistical measure indicating how far the current price diverges from its historical average. A Z-score of 0 shows alignment with the average, while a score below 0 suggests underperformance. Historically, when the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio's Z-score drops below -2, Bitcoin has often experienced substantial price increases. Currently, this Z-score stands at approximately -1.24. Historical data supports this pattern. For instance, in November 2022, during the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, the Z-score dipped below -3, leading to a 150% increase in Bitcoin's price over the subsequent year. Similarly, during the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, the metric fell below -2, and Bitcoin prices surged by over 300% within a year, peaking at roughly $69,000 in November 2021. This perspective contrasts with the outlook of other analysts who predict further market struggles for Bitcoin due to ongoing investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Some market experts foresee Bitcoin potentially dropping to $50,000, reflecting trends seen during the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin's price previously fell over 50% from a high of $60,000 before making a partial recovery to around $66,400 amidst recent Middle Eastern events. This analysis opens a discussion on Bitcoin's future trajectory, especially as some traders anticipate significant upward movement, possibly pushing Bitcoin toward $150,000, with similar pressures building for Ethereum.
Is Bitcoin's Bottom Signal Predicting a Major Rally by 2026?
A Bitcoin bottom indicator from 2023 has reemerged, suggesting a potential 130% price surge. However, the economic landscape of 2026 raises questions about the signal's reliability. Could Bitcoin's price defy the current economic climate? Recently, a bottom signal for Bitcoin (BTC), which initially appeared in 2023 before a significant rally in 2024, has resurfaced, hinting at another possible bullish turning point. Yet, the current factors like liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) movements, and broader economic changes present a different environment than two years ago, implying that the path forward might not follow the previous cycle. Swissblock, a data aggregator, reported that Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in the "extreme high-risk" zone, surpassing its previous 23-day record in 2023. Historically, prolonged periods in this zone have correlated with late-stage market declines or bottom signals. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of XMN Capital, emphasized the Bitcoin supply in profit/loss chart, which shows interactions with levels that previously indicated bottom phases. In 2023, transitioning from high to low risk signaled the beginning of a robust bullish phase. However, trader sentiment does not currently align with an upward trend. RugaResearch observed that the 30-day apparent demand is fluctuating between positive and negative. Although selling pressure has decreased, consistent buying demand has not yet prevailed. Macroeconomic insights from Ecoinometrics suggest that Bitcoin's downturns of this size usually take longer to resolve. Historically, recoveries from 50% declines are gradual, except for the rapid 2020 COVID rebound driven by aggressive monetary policies. ETF data also highlights caution. Since August, gold ETF inflows have outpaced Bitcoin ETF inflows on a 90-day rolling basis. During this time, Bitcoin fund flows have been negative, currently at –$2.06 billion. Inflation trends add complexity to the picture. Ecoinometrics noted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index remains near 2.9% year-on-year, with core PCE around 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. The Federal Reserve targets PCE, and recent trends show no definitive downward movement, suggesting limited room for liquidity expansion. Willy Woo, Managing Partner at CMCC Crest, commented on potential price levels, predicting that any short-term rally to $70,000-$80,000 might face renewed selling pressure due to a bearish overall regime and deteriorating spot and futures liquidity. Woo identified $45,000 as a critical level, with $30,000 and $16,000 providing historical support linked to long-term trend maintenance. While the current signals suggest potential upside, the economic circumstances of 2026 make predictions uncertain, and investors should remain cautious.
Bitcoin Could See Influx as UBS Warns of Overvaluation in US Stocks
In a recent analysis, UBS has raised concerns about the valuation of US stocks, hinting at significant investment opportunities beyond American markets. This development could potentially act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next rally. Key Insights: UBS analysts have downgraded their outlook on US stocks, citing high valuations, a weakening US dollar, and policy uncertainties—despite the growth driven by artificial intelligence in corporate earnings. With limited potential gains in the S&P 500, investors might consider shifting capital toward Bitcoin, especially if major sovereign funds decide to hold BTC reserves. Bitcoin's price recently fell below $65,500, undoing the gains made earlier in the week. This drop followed similar movements in the S&P 500, sparked by US wholesale inflation data that heightened risk aversion. UBS's neutral stance on US stocks likely spurred interest in safer, fixed-income investments. The investment bank's global equity strategy team noted that US market valuations are less appealing compared to other regions. Risks associated with a weakening dollar and policy volatility are contributing to potential structural downside risks. Moreover, the effectiveness of corporate buybacks in maintaining stock prices appears to be waning. Even though the US market’s $70 trillion capitalization should be considered, UBS does not foresee a market collapse, maintaining a year-end S&P 500 target at 7,500. The recent Bitcoin decline coincided with a 0.5% rise in the US Producer Price Index for January. Inflation surprises often lead traders to doubt potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting economic growth as credit remains costly. The US Treasury yield indicates investor risk sentiment. Amid uncertainty, traders gravitate towards government bonds, regardless of inflation. The recent drop in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3.97% from 4.21% suggests a shift towards risk aversion, despite strong corporate earnings. UBS reports that US stocks are trading at a 35% premium over global peers, a significant increase over the 4% average since 2010. They highlight the volatility introduced by US policy proposals, such as capping credit card interest rates and imposing import tariffs. However, they believe AI adoption will support earnings across key sectors. If the S&P 500’s growth remains constrained, Bitcoin could benefit from a capital shift. Gold, as the leading store of value, has already surged to a $36.5 trillion market cap. In comparison, the top ten tech companies hold a combined market cap of $24.2 trillion. A 52% rise in Bitcoin's price to $100,000 would bring its market cap to $2 trillion. Without gains in fixed income or real estate, Bitcoin remains a strong candidate for capital rotation. Investor sentiment towards Bitcoin could improve if major companies or sovereign funds announce BTC holdings, possibly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While it’s uncertain when such events will occur, history shows that market perception can shift positively with announcements like Tesla’s significant Bitcoin acquisition. Until then, Bitcoin is unlikely to decouple from US stock market trends.
Diverging Paths: Bitcoin's Decline and Gold's Surge Reflect Shifts in the Crypto Landscape
In recent developments within the financial markets, Bitcoin and gold are charting markedly divergent courses, reflecting shifting dynamics in the crypto landscape. As of 2026, gold has seen an impressive increase of 153% since the beginning of 2024, while Bitcoin has dropped approximately 30% over the same period. Analysts suggest these trends are influenced by expanding global money supply, changing investor appetites, and a decline in crypto exchange holdings. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, highlighted that gold is behaving as a classic 'hard money' asset, aligning closely with the growth in global money supply. Bitcoin, typically moving in tandem with these financial expansions, has historically surged when liquidity coincided with speculative booms in the tech sector, including software and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks. Historical data from 2017-2018 and 2020-2021 shows software stocks gaining significantly, which paralleled strong rallies in Bitcoin's price. However, the downturn in software stocks around 2022, despite a high money supply, saw Bitcoin's value plummet. This pattern underscores Bitcoin's dual nature of being both a hard asset and a high-beta investment, subject to amplified price swings. Currently, while liquidity remains high, speculative interest is subdued, favoring gold over Bitcoin. Crypto exchanges are witnessing a pivot towards gold-related products. Binance, for instance, introduced gold futures trading, which has seen substantial trading volumes, peaking at over $4 billion in a single day, reflecting heightened interest in tokenized hard assets. Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant contraction in Binance's total portfolio value, encompassing major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and XRP, dropping to around $102 billion, the lowest since April 2025. This reduction, from a peak of $140 billion in August 2025, indicates a combination of asset depreciation and increased self-custody by users amid market volatility. This shift in asset allocation on exchanges suggests cautious trading strategies and a leaner liquidity environment for Bitcoin, as traders adjust their positions. These trends highlight the evolving interplay between traditional and digital assets, as global market forces continue to reshape investment landscapes.
Rising Middle East Tensions Propel Gold as Investors Seek Security
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran are driving investors towards safe-haven assets, with gold emerging as a preferred choice, while equities and Bitcoin experience pressure. As tensions in the Middle East intensify, investors are increasingly turning to gold, causing its demand to surge as they move away from stocks and cryptocurrency markets. On Wednesday, reports indicated a significant rise in Iran's crude oil exports, showing shipments from Kharg Island reaching 20.1 million barrels from February 15th to Friday. This figure is nearly triple January's level, seen as a strategic supply release and a safeguard against potential disruptions due to escalating US-Iran tensions. Analysts from Bitunix have noted that the US's increasingly aggressive stance on Iran’s nuclear activities has heightened the chances of conflict. "Should a direct military conflict between the US and Iran arise, gold could potentially increase by about 15% within two weeks, aiming for a price range of $5,500 to $5,800 per ounce," they noted in a report for Cointelegraph. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also feeling the impact of these macroeconomic forces. Analysts pointed out that a shift of funds into the US dollar as a safe-haven could pressure Bitcoin (BTC) prices into the $64,000-$65,000 range. However, if inflation concerns overshadow dollar stability, there might be a pivot towards alternative hedges, possibly driving BTC to hit $69,000 liquidity levels. The Kobeissi Letter recently shared data indicating a noticeable shift in investor behavior towards safe assets. Indian investors are notably reallocating their capital into gold, with gold ETF inflows reaching approximately 250 billion rupees ($2.7 billion), setting a new record and surpassing equity mutual fund inflows for the first time. The surge in gold ETF demand, which has increased by over 900% since July, contrasts with a $1.9 billion drop in equity fund inflows, highlighting a significant change in capital allocation, especially in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer and one of its top importers. Currently, gold is trading at about $5,172 per ounce, showing a slight decline for the day, although it has risen by $219 (4.4%) over the past week. While gold is attracting more defensive investments, on-chain data suggests that confidence in cryptocurrency remains subdued. A recent Glassnode report revealed that Bitcoin continues to trade within the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with minimal whale accumulation and ongoing ETF outflows. The report also showed that about 9.2 million BTC are currently held at a loss, with the 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio dropping below 1, indicating more holders are selling at a loss than those securing profits. Despite this, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a resurgence on Wednesday as Bitcoin prices climbed back above $68,000. These funds attracted around $506.5 million in daily inflows, the largest since early February, signaling a potential weekly inflow for the first time after five weeks and $3.8 billion in outflows.
Bitcoin Surges 3% as Divergence with Gold Hints at Potential Gains
Bitcoin has seen a notable 3% increase, sparking optimism of a potential rally as its price divergence from gold suggests promising gains ahead. Over the past six months, Bitcoin's inability to mirror the upward trends seen in gold and stocks may point to a delayed price surge, with BTC aiming to revisit the $65,000 mark. On Wednesday, Bitcoin climbed past $66,000, buoyed by the positive momentum in the US stock market, as cryptocurrencies strive to break free from the prolonged slump experienced in 2026. This recovery was mirrored in the stock market, where tech and AI stocks spearheaded gains. The Nasdaq led with a 1.05% increase, while the S&P 500 and the Dow posted gains of 0.68% and 0.86%, respectively. Meanwhile, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and Strategy also experienced modest increases. The recent uptrend in US equities has seemingly alleviated some of the negative pressures on crypto investors eager to reduce their exposure to risk assets. This shift is evident in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks price differences between BTC on Coinbase and Binance. For the first time since mid-January, the index has turned positive, signaling a resurgence of US buyers. Analyst Nic emphasized the importance of maintaining this positive trend to sustain buying pressure. Additionally, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted substantial attention, recording $258 million in net inflows on Tuesday, underscoring the renewed demand within the US market. Bitcoin's Historical Correlation and Potential Upside Historically, Bitcoin has moved in tandem with the stock market, especially the S&P 500. However, this correlation has weakened over the past six months. Currently, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is 0.32, while its correlation with gold stands at -0.45. According to Santiment, an onchain data provider, a significant divergence has occurred since late August, with gold surging 51%, the S&P 500 gaining 7%, and Bitcoin falling by 43%. This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX turmoil in late 2022. Santiment suggests that such a dramatic decoupling could indicate substantial upside potential for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as historically, assets do not remain disconnected indefinitely. Echoing this sentiment, Darius Sit, founder and CIO of QCP Capital, contends that the "Bitcoin vs. gold" debate often overlooks the crucial roles of liquidity and market structure. He argues that the current divergence reflects positional adjustments and leverage-driven flows rather than a fundamental challenge to Bitcoin's long-term narrative. Bitcoin continues to serve as a reliable inflation hedge and an increasingly recognized form of collateral. As institutional and corporate adoption of Bitcoin expanded significantly by 2025, the asset class has matured, gaining traction among investors and establishing its place in the financial ecosystem.
Bitcoin Surges Nearly 5% as Analysts Predict a Shift from Gold
Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum, approaching a 5% daily gain, as it flirts with key technical levels. At the start of the U.S. trading session, Bitcoin's price moved below the 200-week exponential moving average, signaling a potential upward trend. As the markets opened on Wall Street, Bitcoin climbed to $67,000, shaking off concerns over new U.S. tariff announcements. One of the highlights of this price action is Bitcoin's resilience despite the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's announcement of potential tariffs of 15%. Traditionally, such news could unsettle crypto markets, but Bitcoin appears largely unaffected this time around. The cryptocurrency is nearing a critical long-term trend line—the 200-week EMA. Historically, losing this level of support has been a bearish signal. However, analysts like Rekt Capital emphasize the importance of closing the week above this line, currently at $68,330. Another trader, Castillo Trading, is focusing on weekly charts and has identified an upside target near $74,500, which corresponds to Bitcoin's lows for 2025. Castillo Trading notes that maintaining support at the current level could lead to a favorable retest around $74,492. In a parallel development, Bitcoin is showing a bullish divergence against gold, according to trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe. As gold remains above $5,000 per ounce, van de Poppe notes a potential rotation of interest from gold to Bitcoin, based on the relative strength index (RSI). He suggests that while this divergence is not yet confirmed, Bitcoin's recent performance indicates a possible change in capital flows. This potential shift challenges earlier market sentiments that Bitcoin had lost its edge as a 'digital gold' following declines from its October 2025 peak. With Bitcoin now showing signs of strength, the narrative may be shifting back in its favor.
Kraken Introduces Tokenized Stock Futures with 20x Leverage for Global Traders
Kraken, the renowned cryptocurrency exchange, has unveiled a new offering: tokenized equity perpetual futures, now available on its regulated derivatives platform. This innovative product allows qualified international clients to engage in 24/7 trading with leveraged exposure to prominent U.S. stock indexes, gold, and major corporations such as Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla. Announced on Tuesday, these contracts are perpetual futures, meaning they do not have an expiry date and are exclusively accessible to clients outside the United States. Kraken has positioned these products as the first-ever regulated tokenized equity perpetual futures available on a derivatives platform. Built on the xStocks framework, these contracts employ blockchain technology to create digital representations of publicly traded stocks and ETFs. Rather than holding the actual shares, Kraken's contracts are linked to tokenized equity benchmarks, enhancing the burgeoning market for tokenized equities. These digital instruments replicate traditional stocks and offer extended trading hours beyond conventional exchanges. By integrating them with perpetual futures, Kraken introduces leverage and continuous liquidity. Currently accessible in over 110 countries, these contracts offer up to 20x leverage. Kraken has indicated plans to introduce additional tokenized stock and ETF contracts in the future, pending regulatory approval. The clearing and execution of these contracts are managed through Kraken's derivatives platform, and they remain unavailable to U.S. clients. This development comes on the heels of Kraken's acquisition of Backed Finance AG, the creator of xStocks, last December. Kraken announced that xStocks has achieved over $25 billion in cumulative transaction volume within eight months of its launch. Kraken's initiative is part of a broader trend among major U.S.-founded crypto exchanges to diversify into traditional financial markets. Earlier this year, Kraken completed a $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader, a futures platform, expanding its reach into traditional derivatives. In September, the company introduced Backed’s xStocks in Europe for eligible investors. Kraken is not alone in this venture. In June, Gemini, another American crypto exchange, launched tokenized Strategy shares in the EU. Following this, Gemini expanded its offerings to include U.S.-listed companies like BlackRock, Visa, and American Express. Additionally, Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange by trading volume, has recently launched commission-free stock and ETF trading for U.S. users, integrating equities with digital assets in its app as part of its strategy to become a comprehensive financial platform.
Ether Struggles at $1,800 as Market Indicators Suggest Extended Weakness
Ether (ETH) is under pressure, rebounding to $1,800 amidst concerning signals from multiple market metrics. Despite a brief recovery, the cryptocurrency faces ongoing challenges as it grapples with declining onchain activities and substantial futures liquidations. Recent data reveals that futures liquidations in the Ethereum market hit $224 million following a 9% decrease in price, coinciding with onchain activity reaching a 12-month low. The high correlation between Ether and Bitcoin, coupled with significant withdrawals from exchange-traded funds, signals potential further declines. Over the past 10 days, Ether's value has plummeted by 14%, erasing leveraged bullish positions worth $224 million within two days. Traders are on edge, with options and futures data reflecting a lack of confidence. This unease is further compounded by steady outflows from Ether spot exchange-traded funds, indicating a fragile support level at $1,800. The shift in market sentiment is evident from the ETH put-to-call volume premium, which surged to 2.2x on Tuesday, indicating a growing demand for downside protection. The options delta skew also highlighted this trend, with puts trading at a significant premium, reflecting a market eager to hedge against potential losses. Furthermore, the Ethereum network's total value locked (TVL) has dropped to $51 billion, its lowest since May 2025. This decline has led to a reduction in network fees, which have fallen to $13.7 million over the past month, a stark contrast to the $33 million average in late 2025. These figures suggest a waning demand for Ethereum's data processing capabilities. Adding to the bearish outlook, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's recent sale of $7 million in ETH has contributed to the negative sentiment. Although these sales were anticipated and earmarked for privacy-centric and open-source projects, the timing has added to market anxieties. The situation is exacerbated by substantial outflows from Ether ETFs, which have seen $405 million in net withdrawals since February 11, reducing total assets under management to $12.4 billion. Meanwhile, gold ETFs have attracted significant inflows, with $822 million added in the week ending February 20, as gold prices surged past $5,150. Despite the bleak indicators, Ether's struggles are not definitive. However, the market's mood remains bearish, particularly with whales and market makers bracing for further downturns. Ether's price remains closely tied to Bitcoin, with a 20-day correlation exceeding 95% for the past three weeks. The recent drop to $1,800 has left traders uncertain about the underlying factors of the ongoing crypto bear market. This uncertainty prompts many to sell at a loss, and the trend might persist until stability returns to derivatives metrics. Until then, the possibility of further declines in Ether's price remains a concern.
Could Bitcoin Surge to $75K? Factors That Might Propel a Rally
A potential upswing for Bitcoin (BTC) could see its value climb back to $75,000, despite current market anxieties over liquidity and industry valuations, notably in AI. Traders are currently grappling with market uncertainties, trying to determine if the crypto world has reached its lowest point. However, historical patterns, robust mining activity, and shifts in trading positions suggest a possible rally. Bitcoin has spent 18 days below the $75,000 mark, with concerns deepening after a dip to $64,200, influenced by broader market retreats. The situation was exacerbated by former President Trump’s increased tariffs, leading to cautious investor behavior. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's past performance during challenging economic times indicates it often thrives amid macroeconomic fears, especially when liquidity injections are anticipated. On April 2, 2025, sweeping tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration, affecting multiple trading partners. This move, coupled with additional tariffs on April 9, targeted countries like China and coincided with Bitcoin's drop to a five-month low of $74,600. However, a significant 38% recovery followed in the subsequent month. In uncertain times, traders often prefer cash or government bonds over Bitcoin, which is not yet seen as a safe haven. Still, when governments step in with economic stimuli, Bitcoin tends to lead the market in performance. The US Federal Reserve's actions in maintaining funding markets have historically aligned with Bitcoin's price reversals. An example is the COVID-19 crash in 2020, which preceded a major Bitcoin rally from $4,400 to $42,000. Looking ahead, Nvidia's upcoming earnings report may influence investor sentiment, especially as tech sector debt concerns rise. Shares of companies like Coreweave and Oracle have already seen significant declines. Conversely, Bitcoin mining appears stable, with the network's hashrate recovering from past dips. New ASIC miners remain profitable, even at high electricity costs. Furthermore, professional traders have shifted to net long positions on CME Bitcoin futures, indicating increased optimism. This aligns with past trends where such shifts preceded notable Bitcoin price increases. While it's uncertain if the recent low of $60,200 marked the cycle's bottom, the interplay of liquidity issues, AI sector valuation concerns, and mining resilience could drive Bitcoin back toward the $75,000 mark soon.
Bitcoin Bears Face $600M Liquidation Threat, Potential Surge to $70K Looms
Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant price movement that could result in substantial liquidations for bearish traders. Despite current bearish sentiment and unfavorable US economic indicators, factors such as a recovering hashrate and advancements in blockchain security could push Bitcoin towards the $70,000 mark. A slight increase of 4.3% in Bitcoin's price to $69,600 could lead to over $600 million in forced liquidations for those holding pessimistic positions. The network's increasing hashrate and the BIP-360 proposal aimed at enhancing quantum security are mitigating long-term technical concerns. Over the past week, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $65,900 to $70,500. This stagnation has emboldened bearish traders, especially as other major assets have shown resilience. However, excessive bearish confidence could backfire, triggering a wave of forced liquidations in futures positions, which could swiftly shift the market momentum back to favor the bulls. CoinGlass estimates suggest that if Bitcoin rallies to $69,600, it could force the liquidation of over $600 million in short BTC futures. For context, a previous climb to $70,560 from $60,200 resulted in $385 million in short liquidations. A relatively small 4.3% upward movement from the $66,700 level could deal a significant blow to those betting on further declines. Weakening macroeconomic data might also serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin. The US reported slow GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.4%, falling short of the expected 2.9%. This sluggish economic activity negatively affects corporate earnings forecasts, reducing investor interest in the stock market. Furthermore, unexpected increases in US inflation are diminishing hopes for imminent interest rate cuts. As the S&P 500 loses its bullish momentum, investors could be driven towards alternative markets like Bitcoin. Rising tensions in the Middle East could further encourage investors to seek hedges, particularly after a 25% surge in gold prices over three months. With gold's market cap soaring to $35.2 trillion, Bitcoin's risk-reward profile might appeal more to macro traders, especially as it trades 47% below its all-time high. Currently, Bitcoin bears still hold sway, as shown by the lack of demand for long positions in the futures market. The BTC perpetual futures funding rate has struggled to maintain above the 6% neutral mark, with recent negative rates indicating strong bearish commitment, even as Bitcoin tests the $66,000 support level. Regaining bullish confidence is a challenge after the $1.6 billion in liquidations during the market drop that began on Feb. 6. Bitcoin's network security has been bolstered by a recovering hashrate and progress with BIP-360, which strengthens defenses against quantum computing threats. The seven-day average hashrate has bounced back to 1,100 exahashes per second, dispelling fears about miners abandoning the network for AI opportunities. The BIP-360 proposal provides a framework for post-quantum protection through a soft fork, addressing vulnerabilities in Taproot by concealing public keys onchain until transactions occur. This technological advancement could help bulls regain control, potentially leading to a short squeeze and propelling Bitcoin above $70,000.
Bitcoin Options Market Suggests Potential $60K Test in February
The Bitcoin options market is hinting at the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the $60,000 mark in February, as traders adopt strategies to hedge against price declines. Despite Bitcoin's current struggle to hold above $66,000, professional traders are paying a notable 13% premium for protective options, suggesting a cautious outlook. Although the stock market and gold are showing strength, Bitcoin ETF outflows—amounting to $910 million—indicate heightened caution among institutional investors. After Bitcoin failed to surpass $71,000 over the weekend, its price trajectory turned downward, maintaining support at $66,000 throughout the week. However, the sentiment in options markets is shifting, as traders appear more concerned about potential declines rather than reacting to minor price fluctuations. On the Deribit exchange, Bitcoin put options are trading at a premium compared to call options, reflecting a bearish sentiment. Typically, a delta skew between -6% and +6% signals balanced interest in upside and downside strategies. However, the persistent premium for downside protection over the past month suggests a strong inclination towards caution among professional traders. Recent data from Laevitas reveals that the most popular strategies include the bear diagonal spread, short straddle, and short risk reversal. These strategies are designed to profit from either minimal price movements or a downward trend, but they also carry inherent risks if Bitcoin's price unexpectedly rises. The sluggish demand for Bitcoin ETFs points to a broader sense of unease. Analysts often assess stablecoin demand in China to gauge market sentiment. Under typical circumstances, stablecoins should trade at a slight premium to account for financial conversion costs and regulatory hurdles. Currently, a 0.2% discount is observed, which, although an improvement from a recent 1.4% discount, signals moderate market outflows. Despite recent outflows, Bitcoin ETFs still hold $53 billion in net inflows, but the $910 million outflow since February 11 has likely surprised bullish investors. This occurs as Bitcoin remains significantly below its all-time high, contrasting with gold's recent price surge and the S&P 500's proximity to its peak. Overall, the Bitcoin options market's behavior reflects a cautious stance until more clarity emerges regarding the circumstances that led to the dip to $60,200 on February 6.
Bitcoin Struggles to Cross $70K Amid Negative Funding Rates and Market Caution
Bitcoin remains stuck below the $70,000 threshold as negative funding rates and a cooling US tech sector apply pressure on the market. This development signals a lack of confidence among bullish traders to use leverage, as Bitcoin futures funding rates dipped into negative territory briefly. Typically, these rates range between 6% and 12% under neutral conditions, but the recent trend underscores a prevailing sense of caution among investors. Contributing to the bearish sentiment is the uncertainty surrounding the long-term profitability of artificial intelligence investments. This has driven investors towards safer assets like gold and US government bonds. On Tuesday, Bitcoin's attempt to breach the $70,000 mark was thwarted following a pullback in S&P 500 futures. Concerns about the maturity timeline for AI investments have impacted major tech stocks such as Nvidia, Apple, and Google. The dominance of precious metals has further added to Bitcoin investors' disappointment, as silver and gold have outperformed in recent months while stock markets have entered a consolidation phase. This shift is partly attributed to debates over tech valuations and the realization of AI efficiency gains, prompting investors to seek safety in government bonds. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen to its lowest since November 2025, signaling increased demand for these securities. This trend does not necessarily reflect confidence in the Federal Reserve's handling of the economy, as the US dollar has weakened against other currencies. In the tech sector, comments from Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, highlight the uncertain outlook. Amodei reportedly noted that AI investments might not yield significant returns for several years, cautioning against the rapid construction of costly data centers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's options market has stabilized despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The demand for neutral-to-bearish strategies using BTC options has plateaued, with the panic caused by a sudden drop to $60,200 on February 6 now subsiding. Yet, traders remain cautious, not fully embracing a bullish stance. The Deribit BTC put-to-call options ratio was at 0.8x on Monday, reflecting a balanced demand between put and call options, contrasting with the more bearish 1.5x ratio seen earlier. As both US and Chinese markets were closed for holidays on Monday, traders opted for a cautious approach, taking profits as Bitcoin approached the $70,000 mark. While the negative BTC futures funding rate doesn't solely indicate a further decline for Bitcoin, establishing a strong bullish trend will likely require a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainties. Traders are advised to proceed with caution and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Willy Woo Highlights Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin's Dominance Over Gold
Onchain analyst and early Bitcoin supporter, Willy Woo, has raised concerns about the growing impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin's long-term valuation compared to gold. Woo suggests that the potential threat from quantum advancements is causing markets to reconsider Bitcoin's standing against gold. In a recent social media post, Woo discussed the concept of "Q-Day," when a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could potentially compromise current public key cryptography. This scenario could bring back into circulation approximately 4 million "lost" Bitcoins, whose private keys are thought to be irrecoverable. Such a development would challenge Bitcoin's scarcity narrative. Woo estimates a 25% chance that the Bitcoin network might agree to freeze these coins through a hard fork, a highly debated governance topic. The 4 million at-risk coins represent about 25%-30% of the total Bitcoin supply, held in addresses with publicly visible keys, making them prime targets in a quantum attack. The potential move to freeze these coins could disrupt fundamental Bitcoin principles like fungibility, immutability, and property rights. It could create divisions between those advocating for backward-compatible fixes and those open to rule changes to safeguard early balances. With a 75% chance that these coins will remain untouched, Woo suggests investors should consider the possibility that an amount equivalent to "8 years of enterprise accumulation" could become spendable. This scenario is already influencing Bitcoin's valuation, projecting a structural discount against gold for the next five to 15 years. Despite these concerns, Bitcoin developers and cryptographers believe there is no immediate "doomsday" threat. They propose a gradual transition towards new address formats and key management practices to address quantum challenges. Even if quantum breakthroughs occur sooner than anticipated, some experts, like Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation, argue that these coins might be accumulated by a nation-state rather than flooding the market. Willy Woo's warning emerges as Bitcoin's value sits significantly below its all-time high, and quantum risks have become a mainstream consideration in institutional portfolios. Earlier this year, Christopher Wood of Jefferies adjusted his model portfolio by replacing Bitcoin with gold, citing the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin's store-of-value proposition.
Bitcoin's Dual Role: Digital Gold Versus Tech Asset
Bitcoin's identity as a digital asset continues to evolve, with its recent price movements highlighting a closer alignment with technology stocks rather than its original portrayal as 'digital gold.' As institutional investors become more involved through traditional investment channels like exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin's price trends increasingly mirror those of risk assets, bringing into question its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The latest fluctuations in the tech sector, driven by concerns about artificial intelligence's impact, have been reflected in the cryptocurrency market. This shift in dynamics is explored in the latest Crypto Biz insights, where Grayscale's research delves into Bitcoin's growing correlation with growth equities. Meanwhile, an Ether treasury firm, BitMine Immersion Technologies, is expanding its holdings despite facing substantial paper losses, and BlackRock is making significant strides in decentralized finance. Grayscale's findings reveal that Bitcoin's current trading behavior is more akin to that of growth stocks than a stable store of value. Despite Bitcoin's fixed supply and independence from central banks, its short-term market performance aligns with high-growth equities. Over the past two years, a notable correlation has emerged between Bitcoin and software stocks, becoming increasingly evident as AI-driven concerns weigh on the tech industry. In the midst of market volatility, BitMine Immersion Technologies has added 40,613 ETH to its portfolio, reinforcing its commitment to Ether despite a significant drop in value leading to billions in paper losses. This addition raises BitMine's total holdings to over 4.326 million ETH, valued at approximately $8.8 billion. Despite facing criticism and a declining stock price, BitMine chairman Tom Lee emphasizes the company's long-term strategy focused on Ether's potential recovery. In another development, BlackRock is expanding its presence in decentralized finance by listing its tokenized money market fund on Uniswap. The asset manager's BUIDL fund, with assets exceeding $2.1 billion, is now available on the decentralized exchange, allowing institutional investors to engage with tokenized Treasury products onchain. BlackRock has also acquired Uniswap's governance token, UNI, further solidifying its DeFi involvement. Separately, Polymarket is challenging Massachusetts' regulatory stance on prediction markets by filing a federal lawsuit. The company argues that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state authorities, should regulate event contracts, aiming to prevent state-level actions that could disrupt national markets. Polymarket's legal move seeks to clarify jurisdictional ambiguities at the federal level. These developments underscore the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the cryptocurrency landscape, where traditional financial entities and innovative market players continue to shape the future of digital assets.
Bitcoin Open Interest Reaches Historic Lows: Are Traditional Finance Players Withdrawing from BTC?
Bitcoin's open interest has plummeted to levels unseen since 2024, sparking speculation about whether traditional financial institutions are pulling back from the cryptocurrency. As of now, open interest has dropped to $34 billion, a significant decline attributed to diminishing investor demand and concerns over concerning U.S. economic indicators. Despite this drop in open interest value, the BTC-denominated volume remains stable, indicating that the appetite for leverage may still be present. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain a position above $72,000 over the past week, leading some to question if institutional interest is fading. The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest has reached its lowest point since November 2024, raising alarms about a potential retest of the $60,000 support level amid escalating market uncertainty. Despite these figures, when open interest is viewed in Bitcoin terms, it remains steady at 502,450 BTC, suggesting that the overall demand for leverage hasn't waned. A portion of the decline is linked to forced liquidations, amounting to $5.2 billion in the last fortnight. Investors are growing increasingly frustrated due to a lack of clear catalysts for Bitcoin's 28% drop over the past month. This is especially perplexing as gold has crossed the $5,000 threshold, and the S&P 500 is just shy of its all-time high. Analysts suggest these trends are driven by emerging weaknesses in the U.S. labor market. Recent data from the U.S. Labor Department showed a weaker-than-expected addition of 181,000 jobs in 2025. Although the White House attributes this to slower population growth due to its immigration policies, market sentiment remains cautious. Historically, Bitcoin's steep fall in March 2020 coincided with a spike in jobless claims during the pandemic's peak. If current economic conditions threaten growth, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner, enhancing financing conditions and supporting stock markets, as seen in recent years. The weak demand for bullish leverage in Bitcoin reflects a concerning decoupling from traditional markets. The annualized funding rate for Bitcoin futures has remained below the neutral 12% threshold for months, signaling a bearish sentiment. Despite a recovery from negative levels, bears still dominate the market, with professional traders hesitant to risk downside exposure. Moreover, the BTC options delta skew at Deribit rose to 22%, with put options trading at a premium. Typically, this skew should hover between -6% and +6%, indicating a balanced risk outlook. The last bullish skew was observed in May 2025 after Bitcoin reclaimed $93,000. Despite the bearish indicators in derivatives, the US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) maintain a robust average daily trading volume of $5.4 billion, countering claims of fading institutional interest. Ultimately, Bitcoin's market recovery might hinge on clearer insights into the U.S. employment landscape.
Understanding the Current Crypto Winter: A New Perspective on Bitcoin
The ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market might be influenced by institutional investors pulling their stakes, as they still consider crypto investments high-risk. Market analysts are now reassessing Bitcoin amidst its recent price decline, suggesting it might be linked to broader institutional adoption, although it hasn't yet achieved the status of a 'risk-off' asset. Bitcoin has faced significant challenges in recent months. After peaking at over $120,000 in October, its value has been on a downward trajectory, with a steep decline of more than 25% over the past month. This downturn has sparked discussions among market experts seeking to explain the trend. Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, points to the infamous four-year cycles that traditionally shape crypto price movements as a potential cause. Meanwhile, a U.S. Federal Reserve governor and other analysts argue that these price fluctuations illustrate the cautious stance of institutions, who still view Bitcoin as a speculative asset, not yet akin to digital gold. Institutional involvement in the crypto space is considered a key factor in the current sell-off. Despite having substantial capital to invest, major financial institutions exhibit a lower tolerance for risk compared to retail investors, still perceiving Bitcoin as a speculative venture. Chris Waller, a U.S. Federal Reserve governor, highlighted at a recent monetary policy conference that much of the excitement surrounding crypto, which surged during the Trump administration, is now waning. He suggested that firms from mainstream finance are adjusting their risk portfolios, contributing to the sell-off. Echoing this sentiment, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, noted on CNBC that the entry of institutions with different risk appetites is reshaping the industry. Retail investors, he pointed out, typically engage in crypto with high-return expectations, unlike institutional players. Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, reported that Bitcoin's recent price trends show a closer relationship to high-value software stocks than to stable assets such as gold. The company observed that short-term price correlations with precious metals have been weak. Bloomberg's commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, known for his bearish outlook on Bitcoin, labeled it as highly speculative. He remarked that Bitcoin hasn't established itself as digital gold or a leveraged beta, describing it as speculative with limitless competition. Despite these views, Grayscale remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, suggesting that its network will endure and maintain value across various economic and societal scenarios. The company underscored the pivotal role institutions will play in Bitcoin's future success, which hinges on regulatory clarity still lacking in the U.S. The CLARITY Act, a significant piece of legislation under debate in the U.S. Senate, aims to reshape crypto regulation, particularly concerning decentralized finance (DeFi). However, progress has stalled amid disagreements between major crypto entities and the banking sector over stablecoin interest, crucial to exchanges like Coinbase. The delay in passing comprehensive crypto market regulation has contributed to market uncertainty, as pointed out by Waller. Meanwhile, Novogratz stressed the importance of the CLARITY Act, stating that bipartisan support exists for the bill, which is essential for revitalizing the crypto market. Grayscale emphasized that improving regulatory clarity is a crucial trend, surpassing any single legislative effort. It anticipates that favorable regulations will boost applications of blockchain technology, such as stablecoins and tokenized assets, thus enhancing blockchain networks' value. Recent high-level discussions between crypto and banking industry leaders at the White House signal a potential breakthrough in resolving these regulatory roadblocks. Ripple's legal chief, Stuart Alderoty, noted a sense of compromise and bipartisan momentum for sensible crypto legislation. As analysts continue to speculate on Bitcoin's bear market trajectory, Kaiko Research suggested that $60,000 might represent a 'halfway point.' They indicated that the market is approaching critical support levels, which will determine whether the historical four-year cycle framework persists. McGlone predicted that $60,000 is merely a 'speedbump' on the downward path toward $10,000, citing a shift in interest from digital assets to stablecoins and political factors such as the potential lame-duck status of pro-crypto figures. The quest for regulatory clarity remains pivotal for attracting institutional investment, posing a challenge for advancing crypto-friendly policies in the current political climate.
Cryptocurrency Price Forecasts: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, BCH, HYPE, ADA, XMR
Cryptocurrencies are in a consolidation phase, attempting to establish a new price baseline after experiencing a significant sell-off last week. As the market steadies, the question remains: will the bulls take control or will bears continue to dominate? **Bitcoin Analysis** Bitcoin (BTC) recently dipped below the $66,000 mark during early U.S. trading hours. While it has seen a 52% retracement from its all-time high, a further drop to a range between $40,000 and $50,000 might align more closely with historical bear market patterns. Research from Grayscale indicates that BTC's behavior is increasingly akin to that of high-risk growth assets, rather than its previous comparison to gold, showing its deeper integration into traditional financial markets. A positive note for bulls is the recent inflow into BTC spot exchange-traded funds, suggesting institutional interest at lower price levels. If the Bitcoin price holds below $67,300, it could drop to $62,345 or even $60,000. However, should buyers push the price above $72,271, a rally towards EMA $76,275 and potentially $85,832 might be on the cards. **Ethereum Analysis** Ethereum (ETH) is battling resistance at $2,111. A dip to the critical $1,750 support is possible, where buyers might step in to stabilize the market. If the price falls below $1,750, it could slide further to $1,537. Conversely, a close above $2,111 could propel ETH to $2,364 and possibly $2,838 if bulls maintain momentum. **Binance Coin Analysis** BNB faces a pullback towards $570 after failing to surpass $676. A robust defense at $570 is crucial for bulls, as a drop below this could push the price towards $500. If BNB recovers from this level and surpasses $669, a rally to $730 might occur. **XRP Analysis** XRP has held above its descending channel support but struggles to mount a strong rebound. A drop below the support line could lead to a retest of the $1.11 level, with potential declines to $1 or $0.75 if support fails. A move above $1.61 could signal a reduction in selling pressure, aiming for $1.85. **Solana Analysis** Solana's (SOL) rally stalled below $95, suggesting resistance. If the price falls below $77, it may drop to $67, where buyers are likely to defend robustly. A break above $100 could negate the breakdown and lead to $121. **Dogecoin Analysis** Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from $0.10, indicating resistance. A drop to $0.08 could attract buyers, and a break above the 20-day EMA could lead to $0.12. A decline below $0.08 might see the price fall to $0.06. **Bitcoin Cash Analysis** Bitcoin Cash (BCH) faces resistance at the 20-day EMA ($540) but shows resilience. A rise above the EMA could lead to $583, while a fall below $497 might see the price drop to $467. **Hyperliquid Analysis** Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped below the 20-day EMA, showing potential for range-bound movement between $35.50 and $20.82. A rise above $35.50 could start a new uptrend, while a drop below $20.82 might deepen to $17. **Cardano Analysis** Cardano (ADA) is trending toward its descending channel's support line, with potential declines to $0.22, and further to $0.15 if support fails. A rise above $0.29 could stabilize the price within the channel. **Monero Analysis** Monero (XMR) faces resistance at $361. A decline below $309 suggests bearish control, with a potential drop to the $291-$276 zone. A rise above $361 could lead to $394 and potentially $464 if resistance is broken. This overview provides insights into potential price movements for leading cryptocurrencies, reflecting current market trends and potential future scenarios.
Today's Crypto Highlights: BlackRock Enters DeFi, Danske Bank Embraces Bitcoin ETPs, and Tokenized Commodities Surge
In a groundbreaking move into decentralized finance, BlackRock has unveiled its tokenized US Treasury fund, named BUIDL, on the Uniswap platform. This marks a significant step for institutional engagement in DeFi. The announcement reveals that BlackRock will also acquire an undisclosed quantity of Uniswap’s governance token, UNI. Following this news, UNI's value soared, reaching $4.2993, with trading volume skyrocketing by 461% to $879.4 million. Initially, trading will be exclusive to a select group of institutional investors and market makers, with plans to broaden access over time. This initiative is in collaboration with the tokenization firm Securitize. Meanwhile, Danske Bank, a prominent banking institution in Denmark and Northern Europe, is now offering its clients access to Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs) for the first time. The service is available through its eBanking and Mobile Banking platforms, catering to self-directed investors. This strategic shift is driven by growing customer interest and clearer regulatory frameworks within the EU, particularly under the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) guidelines. Initially, customers can invest in three ETPs, including offerings from BlackRock and WisdomTree, aligned with MiFID II directives for investor protection and cost transparency. Kerstin Lysholm, head of investment products at Danske Bank, emphasized that the increasing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies prompted the bank to meet customer demands for crypto investment options. The tokenized commodities market has experienced a remarkable surge, surpassing $6 billion, predominantly fueled by gold's on-chain transition. Since the start of the year, the market has expanded by $2 billion, making it a rapidly growing sector within real-world asset tokenization. Tether’s gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUt), and Paxos’ PAX Gold (PAXG) are leading this growth, with their market values rising substantially. The tokenized commodities segment has grown by 360% year-on-year, outpacing the tokenized stocks and funds markets, which grew by 42% and 3.6%, respectively.
Bitcoin's Decoupling from Gold Hints at Substantial Price Surge by March
Bitcoin's trajectory is showing promising signs of significant growth, with projections suggesting a possible 50% price increase by March, as its correlation with gold diminishes. Notably, Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with gold has hit zero for the first time since mid-2022 and could turn negative by the end of January. Historically, such divergences have preceded notable Bitcoin rallies. Insights from market trends and cycle patterns indicate Bitcoin could reach a price range of $144,000 to $150,000. Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with gold turns negative, strong rallies have often followed. In four similar past instances, Bitcoin saw an average price increase of 56% within about two months of this correlation shift. Despite a deviation from this pattern in May 2021, when external factors such as Tesla's reversal on Bitcoin payments and China's crackdown on cryptocurrency disrupted the market, the current outlook is bullish. This optimism is fueled by macroeconomic trends, including an increase in global liquidity as measured by the global M2 supply, and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening. Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management highlights that Bitcoin bull markets typically coincide with periods of rising global liquidity. With the initiation of a new monetary easing cycle globally and the Fed's QT program ending, Hougan anticipates continued growth in Bitcoin's price into 2026. In the past, under comparable macroeconomic conditions, gold experienced a 65% surge in 2025 while Bitcoin's gains were minimal. However, Hougan expects Bitcoin to outpace gold by 2026, due to their only slightly positive long-term correlation, which he suggests could enhance a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns. Analyst Tuur Demeester supports this view, citing increased money printing as a significant advantage for Bitcoin. The current setup seems to mirror the 2020-2021 bull cycle, where a 56% rally would propel Bitcoin to the $144,000-150,000 range. Crypto analyst Midas draws parallels between Bitcoin's current market structure and its cycle from 2020-2021. He notes that Bitcoin has completed a lengthy downtrend, followed by a multi-month accumulation phase, setting the stage for a breakout similar to the one that led to its previous peak near $70,000. As Bitcoin transitions from accumulation into a pre-parabolic phase, the stage appears set for a significant price surge, potentially targeting $150,000 if the current fractal pattern persists. This analysis suggests Bitcoin may indeed be on the verge of a substantial rally, aligning with historical patterns and current macroeconomic conditions.
21Shares Launches Bitcoin and Gold ETP on London Stock Exchange
21Shares, a leading provider of exchange-traded products (ETPs), has expanded its innovative investment offerings in the United Kingdom by introducing a fund that combines Bitcoin and gold. The new product, known as the 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD), began trading on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) this week. The BOLD ETP is designed to provide exposure to both Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, with an allocation of two-thirds in gold and one-third in Bitcoin. It is available for trading in both British pounds and US dollars. This strategic move aligns with 21Shares' commitment to offering a diverse range of regulated crypto investment products to UK retail investors, as stated by CEO Russell Barlow. Originally launched on the SIX Swiss Exchange in April 2022, the BOLD fund has since been listed on various major European exchanges, including Deutsche Boerse Xetra and Euronext Amsterdam. The ETP is physically backed by its underlying assets, offering a balanced investment approach by allocating equal risk between gold and Bitcoin. This aims to help investors hedge against inflation, with gold being a traditional safe haven and Bitcoin increasingly regarded as "digital gold." Charles Morris, the founder and chief investment officer of ByteTree Asset Management, which partnered with 21Shares on the development of BOLD, emphasized the complementary nature of Bitcoin and gold as assets in the current economic climate. The fund trades under the ticker "BOLD" in pounds and "BOLU" in dollars. As of Monday, the ETP holds approximately 65.85% of its assets in gold and 34.15% in Bitcoin. The net asset value of the BOLD ETP is $50.30, with total assets under management reaching $40.2 million. The annual management fee stands at 0.65%, covering various operational costs. 21Shares is a key player in the cryptocurrency ETP market, managing a wide array of products that track various digital assets, including altcoins like Aave (AAVE), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Polkadot (DOT). The company oversees around $4 billion in assets under management for its European crypto ETPs, accounting for about 2% of the global market share, according to CoinShares data.
Thailand Intensifies Scrutiny on Gold and Crypto to Combat 'Gray Money'
In an effort to tighten its grip on money laundering activities, Thailand is ramping up its regulatory oversight on both gold and cryptocurrency markets. This initiative, reportedly spearheaded by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, aims to unify the regulatory framework for these asset classes, traditionally managed separately, to curb the flow of illicit funds. Local reports indicate that the government is focusing on areas frequently exploited by criminal entities to bypass the formal banking system. This includes the trade and storage of gold bars, the use of online gold platforms, and the circulation of digital currencies. During a recent meeting at the Ministry of Finance, Charnvirakul emphasized the necessity of addressing both modern digital and traditional financial crimes, stating, "We must work as a single, integrated force to protect the public interest and the integrity of our financial system." A key component of this strategy involves the establishment of a national data hub for real-time monitoring of suspicious activities. This hub will facilitate the creation of risk profiles to better detect and respond to evolving criminal tactics. On the gold trading front, the Anti-Money Laundering Office has been directed to lower the mandatory reporting threshold for physical gold purchases, which currently stands at 2 million Thai baht (approximately $63,000). This change aims to prevent criminals from evading detection by making smaller, fragmented transactions. For digital assets, the Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been tasked with enforcing the Travel Rule more rigorously. This global anti-money laundering standard requires crypto asset service providers to gather and share identifying details of transaction participants, especially in wallet-to-wallet transfers facilitated by exchanges. Though no official measures have been announced against self-custody wallets, the increased enforcement could lead to stricter verification processes and controls on withdrawals to such wallets by regulated intermediaries. Thailand has historically maintained a structured regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, emphasizing licensing and clear rules. The nation was a pioneer in Southeast Asia in establishing a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework, placing exchanges, brokers, and dealers under the oversight of the SEC. In recent years, the SEC has also targeted misleading crypto advertising and taken steps to combat crimes involving digital currencies, including measures against foreign peer-to-peer platforms. The current move to combat 'gray money' signifies a shift in strategy, merging the regulation of crypto and gold under a cohesive, data-driven enforcement model. This approach underscores Thailand's commitment to integrating digital assets into the broader financial regulatory landscape, rather than treating them as separate or exceptional entities. This article is based on local reports and aims to provide clear and accurate coverage of Thailand's evolving regulatory environment regarding gold and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Falters as Gold Outshines in Debasement Trade: A Two-Year Low for BTC
Bitcoin's performance as a hedge against currency debasement has faltered, with its price action lagging while gold and silver reach new record highs, according to recent analysis. The latest insights from Karel Mercx, an investment specialist with Beleggers Belangen, indicate that Bitcoin has not succeeded in becoming the investors' preferred choice for the debasement trade. This comes as gold and silver continue to climb, leaving Bitcoin at a disadvantage. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen below the 20-ounce mark in gold terms as it enters 2026, nearing its lowest levels in two years, based on data from TradingView. The precious metals market is reacting positively to US government measures against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in contrast to Bitcoin, which struggles to find its footing. Mercx shared his views on social media, emphasizing that the debasement trade has favored precious metals over Bitcoin. "The verdict is clear: Gold and Silver are leading the debasement trade, not Bitcoin," he stated. "As metals reach new all-time highs, Bitcoin remains 20% below its previous peak," he added. The assertion challenges the notion that Bitcoin could serve as a robust alternative to traditional hard money. Despite Bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold," actual investment trends show a continued preference for tangible assets like gold. "The narrative has changed," Mercx remarked. "Investors are opting for the tried-and-true hard money over digital options." Within the crypto community, concerns are growing about Bitcoin's ability to rebound. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted the importance of acceleration in Bitcoin's price movements to avoid further declines. "Gold and silver have set all-time highs, and Bitcoin must capitalize on this breakout to prevent a downturn," he commented. Meanwhile, market analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted the significance of gold's performance relative to the S&P 500, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics that could alter trends established over the past decade. "If the S&P 500 continues to lose ground against gold, the market environment may fundamentally change," he noted. The conversation around Bitcoin's diminishing four-year price cycle continues, with Mercx previously declaring it "dead" in 2025, contributing to a growing narrative of Bitcoin's weakening performance cycle. "Bitcoin priced in gold shows each cycle weaker than the last," he observed, pointing to the first four-year loss in its history.
Rethinking Scarcity: Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver in 2026 Investment Strategies
In a transformative landscape, Bitcoin, gold, and silver are being reevaluated for their scarcity, no longer defined by mere supply limits but by narratives, market access, and financial structures. As of 2026, investors are reinterpreting scarcity with a fresh perspective, emphasizing trust, liquidity, and portability. The concept of scarcity has evolved beyond physical constraints. Bitcoin has introduced a scarcity model governed by immutable code, challenging the traditional geological limitations associated with precious metals. This shift has prompted a reevaluation of how scarcity is priced, with investors placing greater emphasis on the credibility of scarcity enforcement, ease of liquidity, and the ability to transfer value globally. **Bitcoin's Financial Evolution** Bitcoin's scarcity narrative is grounded in its fixed supply, determined by a transparent issuance schedule. However, the rise of financial products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and derivatives has transformed Bitcoin from a self-sovereign digital asset into a more financialized instrument. While Bitcoin's fundamental scarcity remains unchanged, its market perception is increasingly influenced by factors like liquidity management and market hedging. **Gold's Trust and Neutrality** Gold has long been synonymous with scarcity due to the substantial investment required for mining and its documented reserves. In 2026, gold's value is increasingly tied to the trust it commands as a neutral asset. Central banks and institutional investors regard gold as a stable reserve, independent of any single nation's monetary policies. Gold continues to serve as a reliable collateral asset, maintaining its role during geopolitical uncertainties and financial system disruptions. **Silver's Dual Role** Silver's scarcity narrative is shaped by its dual-use as both an investment and industrial metal. Its demand in electronics, solar panels, and manufacturing complicates its scarcity pricing, as industrial needs can tighten supply even amid fluctuating investor sentiment. The smaller and more sensitive silver markets can experience volatility, making silver's scarcity manifest through sudden price shifts. **The Impact of Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)** ETPs have significantly altered the perception of scarcity across these assets by enhancing market access and allowing for rapid investment flows based on market sentiment. For Bitcoin, ETPs have integrated it into traditional financial systems, while for gold and silver, they have transformed physical scarcity into instruments that behave like stocks. **Derivatives and Perceived Abundance** Derivatives markets, offering futures and options, allow exposure to assets without direct ownership, creating a sense of abundance despite underlying scarcity. This dynamic is particularly evident in Bitcoin and precious metals markets, where derivatives heavily influence short-term pricing. The critical question for investors is not just about an asset's scarcity but how it manifests within specific market structures. **A Comparative Analysis** In 2026, the narratives surrounding Bitcoin, gold, and silver highlight different aspects of scarcity. Bitcoin offers certainty in its supply but faces regulatory uncertainties. Gold presents reliability in legal status and institutional acceptance but variable mining costs. Silver balances these extremes with its industrial relevance and sensitivity to market shifts. Investors now recognize that scarcity is a multifaceted concept, shaped by a blend of predictability, institutional trust, and practical utility. Each asset—Bitcoin, gold, and silver—plays a distinct role in the modern financial ecosystem, contributing to a broader understanding of scarcity beyond traditional definitions.
Binance Ventures into Precious Metals with USDT-Settled Gold and Silver Futures
On January 8, 2026, Binance announced the launch of perpetual futures contracts for gold and silver, marking its expansion into the precious metals market with settlements in Tether's USDT. This move aims to provide crypto investors with a bridge to traditional financial markets, allowing them to trade these metals continuously without an expiration date. The newly introduced contracts, labeled XAUUSDT for gold and XAGUSDT for silver, enable traders to engage with price movements of these commodities via a stablecoin, sidestepping the need for direct asset ownership. Binance has emphasized that these futures are a step towards merging conventional finance with the crypto world, supported by robust compliance measures as regulated by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority under the Abu Dhabi Global Market framework. Jeff Li, Binance's vice president of product, highlighted the significance of this development as a blend of finance and crypto innovation, underscoring the regulatory trust it is built upon. The introduction of these contracts comes as part of Binance's strategy to expand its derivative offerings, with more traditional asset-linked products anticipated in the future. Other platforms like Coinbase, MEXC, BTCC, BingX, and Bybit also offer similar contracts, with Bybit focusing only on gold. This development coincides with a notable surge in the value of gold and silver, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a depreciating US dollar, propelling both metals to record highs in December. Gold peaked at over $4,549 per ounce, while silver reached $83 per ounce, reflecting their status as safe-haven assets. In contrast, Bitcoin saw a decline of around 5% over the same period, while gold and silver rose by 67% and 152%, respectively. The decision to settle these contracts in USDT aligns with Tether's expanding footprint in the crypto market, despite not seeking authorization under the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. Tether has gained recognition in regions like Abu Dhabi, where USDT is sanctioned for use by regulated entities. Binance has been contacted for clarification on where these contracts will be available, particularly concerning the European Economic Area and the UK, but no response was available at the time of writing. As tokenized commodities reach new heights, Binance's offering reflects a growing interest in integrating traditional assets with crypto trading solutions, underscoring a trend where digital and traditional finance increasingly intersect.
Gold and Silver Momentarily Top Market Cap Rankings Amid Market Uncertainty
As the new year unfolds with a backdrop of uncertainty, gold and silver have briefly ascended to the top positions by market capitalization, reaffirming their status as traditional 'stores of value.' According to data from CompaniesMarketCap, gold currently leads with a market cap of $31.1 trillion. Meanwhile, silver has been in a tight race with Nvidia, momentarily overtaking the tech giant before slipping back to third place. The competition between silver and Nvidia is indicative of broader market dynamics, with Nvidia experiencing its own surge, driven by heightened demand for computing power to support artificial intelligence advancements. The past year has witnessed a flight towards precious metals, as investors seek security amidst ongoing global conflicts and trade tensions. In anticipation of significant rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve under new leadership, investors are increasingly turning to commodities like gold and silver. This shift has propelled both metals to new all-time highs, with gold reaching around $4,500 and silver approximately $80. Although this trend has not yet significantly impacted Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, there is speculation that such a shift might be imminent. Owen Lau, managing director at Clear Street, recently highlighted in an interview that the Federal Reserve's monetary policies in 2026 could serve as a pivotal catalyst for the crypto sector. Lau believes that reduced interest rates could ignite interest among both retail and institutional investors in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, often referred to as 'digital gold.' The evolving landscape of investment preferences underscores the complex interplay between traditional and digital assets, as economic conditions and regulatory environments continue to evolve.
Tether Launches Scudo: A New Gold Unit for Digital Transactions as Demand Surges
Amid growing interest in digital gold transactions, Tether has introduced a new unit called Scudo, designed to make gold more accessible in the digital realm. This development aligns with the increasing institutional and central bank appetite for gold, which is being accumulated at unprecedented levels. Scudo, announced on Tuesday, represents one-thousandth of a troy ounce of gold and is directly tied to Tether’s existing digital gold token, XAUT. This means each Scudo equates to 1/1,000 of an XAUT token, a gold-backed asset supported by over 1,300 gold bars held in custody. The market capitalization of XAUT currently stands at approximately $2.3 billion. The introduction of Scudo aims to further lower the barriers to fractional gold ownership, particularly as traditional gold ownership faces challenges related to storage, custody, and divisibility. While XAUT has already addressed some of these issues by tokenizing physical gold, Scudo is intended to enhance the ease of small-scale, onchain transactions. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, emphasized gold’s status as a premier store of value, akin to Bitcoin, especially following a year where gold prices soared beyond $4,550 per troy ounce. Ardoino likened Scudo to satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin, highlighting its potential to revolutionize how gold is transacted in the digital space. The past year marked a significant period for precious metals, with gold and silver prices experiencing substantial increases. Gold surged by around 65%, driven by efforts to move away from the dollar, significant central bank purchases, and ongoing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, silver prices jumped over 140%, reaching approximately $80 per troy ounce, reflecting a broader rise in the metals market. Economist Peter Schiff noted the price surge as a potential indicator of looming high inflation, despite some moderation in recent inflation data. Gold's performance contrasted with Bitcoin, which saw declines and limited demand as a safe-haven asset, particularly after a market downturn in October. This strategic move by Tether to introduce Scudo underscores the evolving landscape of digital assets and the continuing shift towards integrating traditional stores of value like gold into modern financial systems.
Analyst Predicts XRP Could Mimic Gold's Breakout, Yet Challenges Persist
XRP appears poised to replicate a significant breakout pattern previously seen in gold, which could potentially lead to a price target between $8 and $10 by 2026, suggests crypto analyst Steph is Crypto. This prediction hinges on the currency's current trajectory, which mirrors gold's past performance. ### Key Insights: - XRP is following a breakout pattern similar to gold's historical surge, suggesting a price increase to $8–$10 if the trend continues. - Failure to surpass the 100-week EMA may result in XRP reverting to a range of $1.61–$1.97. ### Gold's Historic Breakout as a Blueprint The optimistic forecast is inspired by gold's recovery from 2020 to 2022. During that period, gold consolidated between $1,620 and $2,055, forming a five-wave Elliott Wave structure, including a descending channel as part of the wave 3-4 pattern. In November 2022, gold decisively broke above this long-term resistance, initiating a growth phase that saw its price soar by approximately 180%, reaching a peak of $4,550 by December 2025. ### XRP's Price Action XRP's price movements in early 2026 have displayed similarities to gold's consolidation phase from 2020 to 2022. After being confined within a descending channel, XRP rose nearly 30% in early 2026, breaking out and indicating potential upward momentum. Steph's analysis sets ambitious price targets for XRP in 2026, projecting a rise of 230%-310% from current levels. The analyst notes, "The path XRP is taking is remarkably similar to gold's, though on a delayed timeline." He further explains, "Typically, hard assets move first, followed by higher-beta assets. Gold has already moved; XRP is just beginning to respond." ### Potential Challenges to XRP's Growth Despite the bullish outlook, there are risks that could invalidate this setup. XRP's recent recovery bears a resemblance to its downturn from 2021 to 2022, where rising prices coupled with a declining RSI indicated a bearish divergence, leading to an 85% correction. During that downtrend, XRP experienced significant countertrend rallies, often after interacting with the 100-week EMA, with some rebounds exceeding 100%. However, these rallies did not reverse the overarching downward trend, as prices remained bound by a descending trendline. As of 2026, XRP continues to trade below both the descending trendline and the 100-week EMA, suggesting the bear market might not yet be over. Successfully reclaiming these levels could propel XRP toward $3.00, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Conversely, failing to do so could mean a retreat to the $1.61–$1.97 range. While this analysis provides insights into potential market movements, it's essential to conduct thorough research and consider inherent risks before making investment decisions.
Tether Acquires 8,888 BTC, Becomes Fifth-Largest Bitcoin Holder
As 2025 came to a close, Tether made headlines by acquiring 8,888 Bitcoins (BTC) on New Year's Eve, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to over 96,000 BTC. This move solidifies Tether's position as one of the most significant Bitcoin holders, now ranking as the fifth-largest Bitcoin wallet globally. The USDt (USDT) stablecoin issuer now trails only Binance, Robinhood, and Bitfinex in Bitcoin holdings, and it ranks second in the list of privately-held corporate BTC treasuries. This acquisition is part of Tether's ongoing strategy of quarterly Bitcoin purchases, where the company allocates up to 15% of its earnings to acquire Bitcoin every three months. The latest acquisition, valued at approximately $780 million at the time, underscores Tether's commitment to expanding its Bitcoin reserves, according to CEO Paolo Ardoino. BitInfoCharts data confirms Tether's position as the fifth-largest BTC holder. In addition to Bitcoin, Tether has diversified its asset portfolio with significant gold investments. In the third quarter of 2025, Tether acquired 26 tons of gold, surpassing the purchases of any single central bank during that period, and bringing its total gold reserves to 116 tons. This places Tether among the top 30 global gold holders. The company's asset strategy, which includes US Treasurys, Bitcoin, and gold, has drawn attention from ratings agencies. S&P recently downgraded USDT's rating from "constrained" to "weak," citing transparency and concentration risks. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has also expressed concerns about Tether's increasing reserves in Bitcoin and gold. Despite fluctuations in its Bitcoin holdings, which at times have dropped below 100,000 BTC, Tether maintains that it has not been selling off its Bitcoin. CEO Ardoino clarified that any changes in holdings are related to contributions to "XXI," a Tether-backed firm. As of New Year's Day, Twenty One Capital, associated with Tether, held 43,514 BTC, making it the third-largest Bitcoin holder among public companies behind Mara Holdings and Strategy. The year-end Bitcoin acquisition by Tether is part of a broader trend of corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Japan-listed Metaplanet recently added 4,279 BTC to its treasury, bringing its total to 35,102 BTC. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to enhance its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with its stash now exceeding 670,000 BTC.