Bitcoin has seen a notable 3% increase, sparking optimism of a potential rally as its price divergence from gold suggests promising gains ahead. Over the past six months, Bitcoin's inability to mirror the upward trends seen in gold and stocks may point to a delayed price surge, with BTC aiming to revisit the $65,000 mark.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin climbed past $66,000, buoyed by the positive momentum in the US stock market, as cryptocurrencies strive to break free from the prolonged slump experienced in 2026. This recovery was mirrored in the stock market, where tech and AI stocks spearheaded gains. The Nasdaq led with a 1.05% increase, while the S&P 500 and the Dow posted gains of 0.68% and 0.86%, respectively. Meanwhile, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and Strategy also experienced modest increases.
The recent uptrend in US equities has seemingly alleviated some of the negative pressures on crypto investors eager to reduce their exposure to risk assets. This shift is evident in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks price differences between BTC on Coinbase and Binance. For the first time since mid-January, the index has turned positive, signaling a resurgence of US buyers. Analyst Nic emphasized the importance of maintaining this positive trend to sustain buying pressure.
Additionally, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted substantial attention, recording $258 million in net inflows on Tuesday, underscoring the renewed demand within the US market.
Bitcoin's Historical Correlation and Potential Upside
Historically, Bitcoin has moved in tandem with the stock market, especially the S&P 500. However, this correlation has weakened over the past six months. Currently, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is 0.32, while its correlation with gold stands at -0.45.
According to Santiment, an onchain data provider, a significant divergence has occurred since late August, with gold surging 51%, the S&P 500 gaining 7%, and Bitcoin falling by 43%. This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX turmoil in late 2022. Santiment suggests that such a dramatic decoupling could indicate substantial upside potential for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as historically, assets do not remain disconnected indefinitely.
Echoing this sentiment, Darius Sit, founder and CIO of QCP Capital, contends that the "Bitcoin vs. gold" debate often overlooks the crucial roles of liquidity and market structure. He argues that the current divergence reflects positional adjustments and leverage-driven flows rather than a fundamental challenge to Bitcoin's long-term narrative. Bitcoin continues to serve as a reliable inflation hedge and an increasingly recognized form of collateral.
As institutional and corporate adoption of Bitcoin expanded significantly by 2025, the asset class has matured, gaining traction among investors and establishing its place in the financial ecosystem.