A Bitcoin bottom indicator from 2023 has reemerged, suggesting a potential 130% price surge. However, the economic landscape of 2026 raises questions about the signal's reliability. Could Bitcoin's price defy the current economic climate?
Recently, a bottom signal for Bitcoin (BTC), which initially appeared in 2023 before a significant rally in 2024, has resurfaced, hinting at another possible bullish turning point. Yet, the current factors like liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) movements, and broader economic changes present a different environment than two years ago, implying that the path forward might not follow the previous cycle.
Swissblock, a data aggregator, reported that Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in the "extreme high-risk" zone, surpassing its previous 23-day record in 2023. Historically, prolonged periods in this zone have correlated with late-stage market declines or bottom signals. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of XMN Capital, emphasized the Bitcoin supply in profit/loss chart, which shows interactions with levels that previously indicated bottom phases. In 2023, transitioning from high to low risk signaled the beginning of a robust bullish phase.
However, trader sentiment does not currently align with an upward trend. RugaResearch observed that the 30-day apparent demand is fluctuating between positive and negative. Although selling pressure has decreased, consistent buying demand has not yet prevailed.
Macroeconomic insights from Ecoinometrics suggest that Bitcoin's downturns of this size usually take longer to resolve. Historically, recoveries from 50% declines are gradual, except for the rapid 2020 COVID rebound driven by aggressive monetary policies.
ETF data also highlights caution. Since August, gold ETF inflows have outpaced Bitcoin ETF inflows on a 90-day rolling basis. During this time, Bitcoin fund flows have been negative, currently at –$2.06 billion.
Inflation trends add complexity to the picture. Ecoinometrics noted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index remains near 2.9% year-on-year, with core PCE around 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. The Federal Reserve targets PCE, and recent trends show no definitive downward movement, suggesting limited room for liquidity expansion.
Willy Woo, Managing Partner at CMCC Crest, commented on potential price levels, predicting that any short-term rally to $70,000-$80,000 might face renewed selling pressure due to a bearish overall regime and deteriorating spot and futures liquidity. Woo identified $45,000 as a critical level, with $30,000 and $16,000 providing historical support linked to long-term trend maintenance.
While the current signals suggest potential upside, the economic circumstances of 2026 make predictions uncertain, and investors should remain cautious.