Recent analysis of Bitcoin's price movement indicates a persistent bearish trend, reminiscent of the 2022 market downturn, with some experts foreseeing new macro lows. Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a brief 3% uptick, yet skepticism remains about the sustainability of this rebound.
Key insights suggest that if patterns from the 2022 bear market persist, Bitcoin could see further declines. Analysts are closely monitoring moving averages and the cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, though they acknowledge that a repeat of 2022's conditions is not guaranteed.
Despite Bitcoin crossing the $71,000 mark, a 20% rise from Friday’s 15-month low, market volatility continues to stir doubt. Filbfilb, an independent analyst, compared the current price action to that of 2022, pointing out that the market has not yet reached true capitulation. His analysis, alongside a chart on X, showed Bitcoin’s spot price in relation to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) set at $95,300.
Analysts like Tony Severino and trader BitBull echo these sentiments, suggesting that a real bottom might emerge below the $50,000 threshold, potentially leaving many ETF investors at a loss. Currently, the average buy-in cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $82,000 according to Checkonchain.
Previous reports from Cointelegraph have highlighted significant bear market indicators, focusing on the 200-week simple and exponential moving averages, which together create a support zone between $58,000 and $68,000. Caleb Franzen from Cubic Analytics noted that Bitcoin is revisiting this crucial support area, drawing parallels to its behavior in May 2022 when it initially rebounded before eventually breaking through this support in June.
Franzen emphasizes that while historical patterns offer insights, the market's future trajectory remains uncertain. He stresses that predicting the exact course of Bitcoin’s price is challenging and that investors should remain vigilant.
(Note: This article is a summary of market observations and does not offer investment advice. Readers should perform their own research before making financial decisions.)